Hayabusa2’s 2031 Touchdown Plan Faces an Surprising Asteroid Nightmare

On December 6, 2020, the Hayabusa2 spacecraft dropped off pristine samples from asteroid Ryugu within the Australian outback, changing into the world’s second asteroid pattern return mission, after the primary Hayabusa mission returned dusty samples from asteroid Itokawa in 2010. However Hayabusa2 nonetheless has extra to supply.

That very same spacecraft is presently on its technique to one other distant area rock, aiming to snag extra samples to assist scientists compile the photo voltaic system’s origin story. Latest observations of the asteroid, nonetheless, reveal that Hayabusa2 may not be capable to contact down on its new goal.

Asteroid 1998 KY26 is a small, lumpy near-Earth object thought to comprise about one million gallons of water. It rotates so shortly {that a} day on the rock ends nearly as quickly because it begins, based on NASA. Hayabusa2 is ready to rendezvous with the asteroid in 2031 as a part of its prolonged mission to gather extra mud and rock straight from the supply.

Now, utilizing a number of observatories world wide, astronomers gathered extra knowledge on Hayabusa2’s new goal and located that it’s almost 3 times smaller and spinning a lot quicker than initially thought, based on a brand new paper revealed in Nature Communications.

Not clear for touchdown

The researchers behind the brand new paper mixed the latest observations with earlier radar knowledge, revealing that the asteroid is a mere 36 ft (11 meters) large, versus 98 ft (30 meters). What’s extra, the asteroid is spinning about twice as quick as earlier knowledge recommended.

“We discovered that the truth of the article is totally totally different from what it was beforehand described as,” Toni Santana-Ros, a researcher from the College of Alicante, Spain, and lead writer of the brand new paper, mentioned in a statement. “At some point on this asteroid lasts solely 5 minutes!”

Hayabusa2’s first goal measured at almost 3,000 ft (900 meters) large. The spacecraft landed on asteroid Ryugu on February 22, 2019, for the primary time, then returned for a second landing in July 2019 to gather subsurface samples from a crater it had created with its first touchdown. Shortly earlier than dropping off its samples on Earth, Japan’s area company (JAXA) introduced an extension to Hayabusa2’s mission and a fortunate second goal.

A much bigger problem awaits

Not like its first goal, nonetheless, Hayabusa2’s second touchdown will show far tougher as a result of asteroid’s small measurement and quick rotation. The workforce behind the brand new research used the European Southern Observatory’s Very Massive Telescope and different devices to watch 1998 KY26 in preparation for the mission’s upcoming encounter.

“The superb story right here is that we discovered that the scale of the asteroid is corresponding to the scale of the spacecraft that’s going to go to it! And we have been capable of characterize such a small object utilizing our telescopes, which signifies that we will do it for different objects sooner or later,” Santana-Ros mentioned. “Our strategies may have an effect on the plans for future near-Earth asteroid exploration and even asteroid mining.”

This has the makings of a really fascinating rendezvous! Now we simply have to attend—impatiently—for 2031 to reach.